On 22 March 2020, South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa announced a nationwide lock-down. All non-essential businesses were closed along with schools, public parks and religious centres. The South African National Defence Force was deployed across the country to aid police in keeping the cities clear while people were asked to stay at home.
All of the experts predicted a COVID-19 tsunami in South Africa. Our unemployment rate before COVID-19 was 30% according to the latest government statistics. Combining our gross poverty with a massive HIV population was a perfect recipe for disaster. We expected COVID-19 to spread like a wildfire through townships and decimate our HIV population.. Utilising statistics and infection patterns from other countries, we predicted an exponential growth in case numbers with a complete flooding of our health system. China, Italy, UK and USA all went down the same path despite having world class health facilities with endless resources.
The world numbers of COVID-19 are increasing at an alarming rate. It took 14 weeks from the world’s first COVID-19 case before there were 1 million cases recorded. Then we went from 1 million to 2 million cases in a single week.
South African doctors were aware of what lay ahead and we braced ourselves for the coming storm. Yet, oddly enough, here we are three weeks later and there is still no storm. What on earth is going on? COVID-19 has completely high-jacked the entire health system across the world. All routine procedures as well as non-emergency operations have been stopped. Mediclinic in Howick has 5 patients admitted in a 52 bed Hospital today. Where are the Coronavirus cases?
In South Africa’s initial phases of the Pandemic, we mimicked every other country’s trajectory. The increase from our first incidence of COVID-19 on 5th March 2020 until the lock-down on 26 March 2020 (21 days later) was 709 cases. Italy went from 3 cases on 1 February 2020 to 888 cases on 28 February 2020 (27 days later). According to those statistics, our curve was worse than theirs. Then the strangest thing happened – our new cases dropped from over 200 confirmed new cases daily to an average of 60 cases daily for the last 2 weeks. South Africa is one of the very few countries who have managed to flatten their infectious curve. Our country is now on a completely different and unique trajectory.
Why has this happened?
There are three theories for this. The most common one is that we are not testing enough people. This means that the data is not accurate. False statistics create complacency and place us at a higher risk of contracting the infection. This theory, however, is not true. Although we are not yet testing our goal number of 15 000 people daily, we are still testing almost 6000 people daily and this number is increasing every day.
The second theory is that we are testing a lot more people in the private sector because they can afford the tests. This gives us skewed statistics about what is actually going on in rural South Africa. The truth is that the government is screening a massive amount of people daily and this number increases all the time. South Africa is one of very few countries who are actively going out into communities and screening people at home with more than 28 000 healthcare workers going out and actively looking for the virus.
The third theory is starting to look like the most likely theory, even though we don’t want to believe it. Did the lock-down actually work? Did we as South Africans manage to beat the COVID-19 pandemic by something as simple as staying at home and practising good hygiene. The answer seems to be yes. Although no one wants to say it for fear of jinxing the scenario, it is true. Aggressive leadership from our president and health minister has lead to a temporary victory against COVID-19.
The problem is that this victory is only temporary. Once people go back to their daily lives, then the virus will rapidly spread and we will be in the same situation as other countries. The difference between us and the rest of the world is due to the excellent leadership initiatives that we have had from government, we are much better prepared for COVID-19. Whilst other countries had to scramble during a flood of patients to stay afloat, we were able to strategise our approach and ready our battlements. Government has drafted protocols while doctors have attended COVID-19 training camps. Nurses are drilled daily on infection control guidelines while hospitals are able to stock up on much needed personal protection equipment and vital medical care equipment.
Make no mistake, Coronavirus is far from over and the sad truth is that our worst days are still coming. However, thanks to the way South Africans have pulled together and our discipline in staying at home, we have a much better fighting chance than our international counterparts had.
The lock-down is emotionally frustrating and financially debilitating. These next 2 weeks are crucial for us as South Africans to do our part and stay at home. In the bigger picture, a lot of lives will be saved if we do the simple things right. Wash your hands, wear a mask when out and about, practice social distancing and most importantly: stay at home.
God bless South Africa. Our wish is that you keep safe during this difficult time.